Saturday AM

U.S. stocks rose Friday, capping the biggest weekly advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in 34 years - Bloomberg.com.

Shoppers Hit Stores on Black Friday, but Mood Is Subdued - WSJ.com.

The mood was far from subdued at the Long Island Wal-Mart - NY Daily News.

But Cyber Monday may be a flop: Online retailers fear holiday slump - MarketWatch.

The Worst Is Yet To Come: Anonymous Banker Weighs In On The Coming Credit Card Debacle - Executive Suite Blog - NYTimes.com.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Chesapeake Energy, Largest US Natural Gas Producer, Runs Out Of Cash.

Americans Drive Less, Creating a Problem (for the government) - WSJ.com. Gasoline consumption has fallen compared with a year earlier in every month from March through September. Vehicle miles traveled have dropped for 11 straight months. The funds that pay for roads, bridges, rail transit and other transportation infrastructure are falling right along with gasoline tax receipts.

Expect Continued Drops in Solar - Kevin Schulle on Seeking Alpha. The industry's fundamentals are still deteriorating.

Pepsico and Coca Cola hope that impending FDA approval of stevia, a natural calorie-free sweetener, will revive sagging cola sales - Bloomberg.com.

Battery Life Breakthrough Could Increase Li-Ion Capacity by 1000% - Zoomi Life.

TheStar.com sciencetech - 2,700-year-old marijuana found in Chinese tomb. The 789 grams of dried cannabis was buried alongside a light-haired, blue-eyed Caucasian man, likely a shaman of the Gushi culture, near Turpan in northwestern China.

Friday AM

Retailers in focus on Black Friday - CNNMoney.com. Futures point to a weak open as the critical holiday shopping season kicks off. U.S. markets will close early; stock trading volume is likely to be light. Friday will be a light day for economic reports:
9:45 NAPM Chicago Business Barometer
3:00 Farm Prices
4:30 Money Supply

Will the Bulls Have Christmas This Year? via The Big Picture, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s, explains why he thinks December may be a positive month for U.S. equities, and why he recommends exposure to defensive sectors, such as consumer discretionary and health care.

Last Thursday was the Bottom - It's time to get back in: Tacitus on Seeking Alpha. "the one historically consistent sign of a market bottom that has not been in place heretofore has been the market's discounting of bad news. That missing element finally appeared on Wednesday, November 26, when a stream of bad news came over the wire before the opening about weak durable goods orders and other negative factors."

Long-term perspective on U.S. gasoline prices - Chart of the Day.

Johnson & Johnson Is the Latest FDA Casualty - Mike Huckman on Seeking Alpha. Hopefully, Obama will soon appoint someone to run the agency who the industry and investors think will speed up the drug approval process while still watchdogging patient safety.

Food Prices Expected to Keep Going Up - NYTimes.com. Retail price increases in the 4% range seem likely in 2009, despite the collapse in commodity prices, which remain above historical averages despite coming down from their highs early this year.

The Girl with X-Ray Eyes - Discovery Channel. Natasha Demkina is able to look into people’s bodies and correctly diagnose their medical problems, without any help from ultra-sound or x-ray equipment.

NPR: The Treasury Dept. Is Making Money on the Money Market Fund Insurance Program. So far they have pulled in $332 million in insurance premiums, and haven't had to pay anything out.

The Annual Phallus Festival in Greece - Spiegel Online. Each year on the first Monday of Lent, the people of the tiny Greek town of Tyrnavos go crazy about penises, singing lewd songs and urging passersby to kiss their model phalluses.

Thursday AM

The Dow just hadthe biggest four-day rally since 1932, and on terrible economic news, too - a positive development. However, volume was very light Wednesday ahead of the holiday.

The S&P 500's dividend yield exceeds the yield of the 10-year Treasury note for the first time since the 1950s - Bloomberg's Chart of the Day

CARPE DIEM: Quantitative Easing: Interest Rates Head to Zero? Financial markets notched up another historic milestone on Wednesday as the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury debt fell below 3% for the first time in 50 years.

But Paul Volcker is Back! Will High Interest Rates Follow? The Dividend Daily.

Humble Student of the Markets: An alternate (simple) explanation for market volatility: low share price.

How to Pick Stocks in a Bear Market - The MoneyVidya Blog. The common sense, essential basics which everyone should keep in mind.

Investopedia.com - The Greatest Currency Trades Ever Made.

Calafia Beach Pundit: Gold predicts inflation. As this chart shows, gold has tended to forecast where inflation is headed about one year in advance.

Investopedia.com - Do Adaptive Moving Averages Lead To Better Results? "Although the adaptive moving average is an interesting newer idea with considerable intellectual appeal, our preliminary tests fail to show any real practical advantage to this more complex trend smoothing method."

Melt Mail: Your temporary e-mail forwarding. Create a temporary email address which will forward emails to your real email address for 3, 6, 12, or 24 hours, then self-destruct. A nice alternative for quick web signups.

Wednesday AM

Lots of economic reports will be released today, but durable goods orders could have the most impact. Expectations are incredibly low and the markets could have a very strong positive response to a report that is not as bad as feared. The stock market will close at 2:00, volume could be light ahead of the holiday, and volatility could be even higher than usual due to the dearth of participants.
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Durable Goods Orders
8:30 Jobless Claims
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
10:00 New Home Sales
10:35 EIA Petroleum Status
11:00Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
12:00 PM EIA Natural Gas Report

Mortgage Spreads Tighten - Bespoke Investment Group. The new $800B government bailout plan, which includes $200B to support the issuance of loans to consumers, did have a positive initial impact, helping thaw credit markets as intended.

But the dollar tanked after the Fed announcement - MarketWatch.

ABC News - Black Friday Weekend Could See 5 Percent Fewer Shoppers. However, I have a hunch it might turn not be as bad as expected. Lower gasoline prices could be helping consumers feel better about spending.

Stocks: The Individual Investor's Dilemma - BusinessWeek. The worst market in a lifetime has left the average investor stunned. According to Hewitt Associates, 53.8% of 401(k) assets are held in equities, down from 68.1% a year ago, and the lowest since the firm started tracking the data in 1997. A survey by the American Association of Individual Investors shows individuals allocating only about 45% of holdings to stocks, down from a historical average of 60%.

We have been hearing a lot of comparisons of the current market to depression of the 1930s. How about first comparing today to the early 1980s? - Carpe Diem.

Food PricesMay Rise Next Year, Causing Export Bans, Riots - Bloomberg.com.

The Adopt-A-Turkey Project seeks to end the misery of commercially-raised turkeys by offering a compassionate alternative for Thanksgiving. Since 1986, Farm Sanctuary has rescued more than 1,000 turkeys, educated millions of people about their plight and provided resources for a cruelty-free holiday. Anyone can sponsor turkeys residing at our sanctuaries in California and New York, and some even choose to adopt turkeys into their homes through our annual Turkey Express adoption event.

Tuesday PM

Fed commits as much as $800B more to unfreeze lending - Bloomberg.com. The Fed will purchase up to $100 billion in direct debt of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks and up to $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities backed by Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie Mae. "They’re trying to put funds into the system, trying to unfreeze these markets,” said William Poole, the former St. Louis Fed president. “Clearly, the Fed and the Treasury are beginning to take a large amount of credit risk.”

Pledges by Fed, FCIC, Treasury, and FHA = $90K per Taxpayer - EconomPic Data.

Jim Rogers says Dollar will be Devalued - Bloomberg.com. The dollar is “going to lose its status as the world’s reserve currency. It will be devalued and it will go down a lot. ”

After Citi, is Bank of America next? - Reuters. BAC further heightened its hefty exposure to home loans by acquiring Countrywide Financial Corp, the largest U.S. independent mortgage lender, and agreeing to buy Merrill Lynch & Co.

Analysts are at their least bullish levels ever- Bespoke Investment Group. According to Bloomberg statistics that track analyst buy, sell, and hold ratings, only 36% of all ratings are currently buys. This is the lowest level since at least 1997, and significantly lower than the 75% level we saw in 1997 and 2000.

We are in for the mother of all bear market rallies - Barton Biggs on FT.com. "First, let me point out that by definition the bottom of a bear market has to be the point of maximum bearishness. Thus sentiment becomes a crucial indicator. . . investors, hedge funds, pension and mutual funds, and the public are not just talking bearish, they have raised astounding amounts of cash. . . I’ve never seen capitulation and despair like this. We must be pretty close to maximum bearishness. . . Second, valuations are cheap. . . Third, stock markets have been obliterated and are deeply oversold. . . History shows that even in enduring, secular bear markets there are not just 20 per cent bounces but usually one 30 to 50 per cent rally. We should be due. . . Finally, my guess, and it’s nothing more than a guess, is that the deleveraging that has caused such heavy selling is two thirds done. In listed equities it may be 80 per cent finished. "

Hedge funds may sell $200B more of assets, survey finds - Bloomberg.com. 63 percent of hedge-fund managers said the sale of assets to cut leverage was at least half completed. Twenty-three percent said the process was three- quarters finished, New York-based Bernstein said.


Donklephant - Does The Constitution Bar Hillary Clinton From Becoming Secretary of State? Let's hope so. Article One, Section Six of the Constitution, also known as the "emoluments clause", says that no member of Congress shall be named to any office “the emoluments whereof shall have been increased during his term.” In Clinton’s case, cabinet salaries were increased from $186,600 to $191,300 during her current term in the Senate.

Could You Have Passed the 1895 8th Grade Exam?

Tuesday AM

Dow's biggest 2-day run since '87 - CNNMoney.com. "The two-session gain of 891.10 points was the biggest two-session gain ever, according to Dow Jones. The percentage gain of 11.8% was the biggest two-session percentage gain since Oct. 1987. The S&P 500 also saw its biggest two-session percentage gain since Oct. 1987, rising 13.2%."

Dow Gains 15% in 7 (Trading) Hours - The Big Picture.

Fed Pledges Exceed $7.4 Trillion in Rescue of Companies With Frozen Credit - Bloomberg.com.

Obama urges Congress to pass costly stimulus bill - Yahoo! Finance. He said he wanted Congress to act "right away" on a stimulus measure that would blend spending and tax cuts. Obama said he wanted a measure "of a size and scope that is necessary to get this economy back on track." Democratic officials in Congress said the stimulus plan could include aid to cash-strapped states to provide health care to the poor, along with road and bridge funding. More money for food stamps is also likely, they said.

Stimulus 'Jolt' Triple the Size of Initial Plans Takes Shape Under Obama - Bloomberg.com.

History of U.S. Gov’t Bailouts - ProPublica.

Saving Citi May Create More Fear - NYTimes.

Christmas Spending Projection Drops to 8 Year Low - The Big Picture. "Americans’ projected average Christmas spending this year, $616, is the lowest in Gallup’s 10-year history of tracking this question. . . but . . . what people do, and what they say they think they are going to do, are often worlds apart."

What Geithner Must Prove - Rick Newman, Money & Business, usnews.com. "He's certainly had plenty of bailout practice. . . But Geithner is still a risky choice, and in a few months' time, the markets could very well have turned on him. Here's why: He's never been top dog. . . He's a career regulator. . . His political chops are unknown."

Opportunities in Undervalued Stocks - Ockham Research on Seeking Alpha. "Every company will be affected to some extent by nationwide deleveraging but stocks that can produce strong cash flow will be the quickest to recover. Companies that fit this description include: Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA), Google (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT)."

The poo-poo terrorist has been arrested - ejoh.zmolklife.com. "One of the most feared criminals in Norway has been arrested. He has been called the poo-poo terrorist because he has vandalized his victim’s cars with, that’s right, human 'shit'."

Monday PM

Corporate insiders are in a "buying frenzy" - Trader's Narrative. According to InsiderScore, "insiders are more bullish now than at any time since the two weeks immediately following the Black Monday market crash of October 1987."

Jeremy Grantham Speaks - Jason Zweig, The Wallet. "You’d be hard-pressed to find a more cogent explanation of how the world’s financial markets got in this mess. And, just as important, you’ll search long and hard to come across a sounder set of arguments as to what makes now a good time to buy."

Over 100 S&P 500 constituents are now selling for under $10 a share - Reuters. In fact, a third of the stocks in the index are not even qualified to be in the index -- 186 stocks have market caps under $4 billion, the minimum value for consideration for S&P 500 membership.

Paulson may tap rescue fund, roll out new program - Reuters. Paulson is apparently seeking ways to make it easier for households to borrow money and also looking for ways to reduce the burden of foreclosure on homeowners.

Don't Get Depressed, It's Not 1929 - Daniel Gross, Newsweek.com. Instead of out-of-work men asking, 'Brother, can you spare a dime?' we have executives asking Congress if it can spare $100 billion.

The Fed Is Out of Ammunition - Christopher Wood, WSJ.com. A discredited dollar is a likely outcome of the current crisis.

Pictures of ancient churches hewn from boulders of solid granite in Lalibela, Ethiopia.

Monday AM

Citigroup Gets $306 Billion Loan Guarantee, $20 Billion of Government Cash - Bloomberg.com.

Does Extreme Stress Signal an Economic Snapback? - Barrons.com. More than a decade's worth of equity gains has evaporated. But history suggests that stocks won't fall much further.

Obama Looks to Axe Daylight Time -- NYT Explains Why - Green Daily (Good.)

Every Stock Mutual Fund Has Lost Money in 2008, Except One: BMCGX - BusinessWeek.

Poll: Internet News Now Considered More Reliable Than TV, Radio News - ReadWriteWeb. A survey of more than 3000 people performed in the two days after the US Presidential Election found that 37.6% of respondents considered the Internet the most reliable source of news, 20.3% consider national TV news most reliable and 16% said that radio is the most reliable source. Interesting that newspapers were not even on the pollers' radar screen.

Icelanders demand PM resignation, clash with police - National Post. Thousands of Icelanders demonstrated in Reykjavik on Saturday demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Geir Haarde and Central Bank Governor David Oddsson for failing to stop a financial meltdown in the country.

Username Check: A simple web interface that allows you to check the availability of usernames across many platforms with one query.

Guys: 5 Sexual Techniques to Make Her Wild with Desire - Marriage Actually. Between being married a long time, and also being a woman, I can tell you guys that there are certain things you can do to make your wife swoon. They aren’t difficult, anyone can do them and they are some of the sexiest things I can think of…and I have quite the imagination…So. Are you ready? Are you all that is man? Wipe that drop of drool from the corner of your mouth and read on….

Sunday AM

Harsh economic data expected for coming week - MarketWatch. The data this week are expected to take a dramatic turn for the worse, with weak durable-goods sales, consumer spending, and housing data. "The economy has suffered a heart attack. It needs careful attention," said Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief executive officer of Pimco. Economic reports will be crammed into the first three days of the week because of Thanksgiving. Ten economic indicators will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday. The most important, perhaps, will be the durable-goods report for October, which will be released on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists is for orders for durable goods to drop 2.5%. But durable goods is a volatile number and hard to forecast. Some economists expect a sharper drop in the range of 6.5%.

U.S. stock volatility will soon top 1929 record, Goldman says - Bloomberg.com. Realized volatility, a gauge of stock-price changes, for the 80-year-old S&P 500 has risen to 66% for the last three months, the highest since reaching 68% after the crash of 1929, Goldman Sachs derivatives strategist Krag “Buzz” Gregory wrote in a note to clients last week. “Three-month realized will likely pass that number in short order as the last few days of August and early September drop from the calculation window,” Gregory said. “That makes the current market environment as being the highest sustained volatility environment in S&P 500 history.” Realized volatility is already more than double the average peak of 30 percent during the last nine bear markets and it has also exceeded the 64 percent level that followed the 1987 crash, Gregory wrote. The VIX Index closed at 80.86 last Thursday, the highest in its 18-year history.

US elected officials scored abysmally on a test measuring their knowledge of Amerian history, economics, and civics - Yahoo! News. Elected officials had an average grade of 44 percent, the group that organized the exam said Thursday. Ordinary citizens fared a little better, scoring 49 percent correct on the 33 exam questions compiled by the Intercollegiate Studies Institute (ISI). "It is disturbing enough that the general public failed ISI's civic literacy test, but when you consider the even more dismal scores of elected officials, you have to be concerned," said Josiah Bunting, chairman of the National Civic Literacy Board at ISI.

The DIV-Net: Dividend Stock Review - Becton, Dickinson & Co. Synopsis: BDX has four strategic focus areas in medical technology: Reduce spread of infection, Advance global health, Enhance therapy and Improve disease management. The company has increased revenue over 10% per year for the last six years and has profit margins over 51%. My take: The stock is in a downtrend right now, it hit a new low last week, and it has a low current dividend yield of 1.86%. But BDX has an excellent dividend history of 24 consecutive annual dividend increases, some quite healthy, and the stock has a nice low beta of .59. I think BDX is a good one to keep an eye on.

U.S. Bancorp acquires deposits of failed California banks - Yahoo! Finance. U.S. banking regulators seized California banks Downey Savings and Loan and PFF Bank & Trust late Friday as the housing crisis claimed two more victims. U.S. Bancorp took over the two banks' branches, deposits, and most of their assets, the FDIC said. Downey, which specialized in exotic mortgages known as "option ARMs," is the third largest bank to fail this year. U.S. Bancorp is one of the few banks that have sidestepped most of the woes of the credit market cycle. It agreed to change the terms of mortgages taken out by Downey and PFF customers, in a program similar to the one the FDIC is using for mortgages held by IndyMac. U.S. Bancorp had 2,556 branches before this transaction, of which 353 were in California. Downey has 170 branches in California and five in Arizona, and PFF Bank has 38 branches in California.

Joyous court climax for Madonna of Orgasm Church - The Local: Sweden's News in English. The Madonna of Orgasm Church (Orgasmens Madonnas kyrka) took an important step toward official recognition in Sweden last week when a court ruled it had the right to be registered as a faith community. Originally, the Legal, Financial and Administrative Services Agency (Kammarkollegiet) had refused the church’s registration application on the grounds that its name might offend Christians. But the church’s founder, artist Carlos Bebeacua, from Lövestad in southern Sweden, won his appeal to the county administrative court. If the agency does not appeal the court’s decision within three weeks, then it must process Bebeacua’s application to register the church.

Book: "Natural Harvest - A Collection of Semen-Based Recipes" by Fotie Photenhauer ($24.95). "Semen is not only nutritious, but it also has a wonderful texture and amazing cooking properties. Like fine wine and cheeses, the taste of semen is complex and dynamic. Semen is inexpensive to produce and is commonly available in many, if not most, homes and restaurants. Despite all of these positive qualities, semen remains neglected as a food."