Thursday links - angry bear may seek revenge

Richard Russell: This is a Bear Market Rally. "The rally ran from March to October, a period of seven months. In other words, the bear market has been “held back” for a period of over half a year. My thinking is that the bear is “angry” at being held back, and it will probably want to make up for lost time in the period ahead. From everything I see, hear or read, I gather that almost everybody believes the March lows are safe, that they will not be violated, no matter what. However, if the bear market rally is now in the process of breaking up, my thought is that stocks could decline very rapidly, much faster than most people are prepared for. If late-coming traders suspect that the rally is over, we could see a frenzy to get out of this market. This along with a panic from pros who want to get out with what profits are left."

A Big Bet on a Rising Dollar - The Pragmatic Capitalist. He points out the huge volume on UUP yesterday, and notes that "155,000 call options bought for tiny premiums ranging between 10-15 cents per contract smacks of a large institution placing a sizeable gamble that change might be in the air".

Graphic: Comparing percent change of several asset classes since the 2008 election.

Clever fools: Why a high IQ doesn't mean you're smart. A good read. Intelligence tests fall down when it comes to measuring abilities crucial to making good judgments in real-life situations - they are unable to assess things such as a person's ability to critically weigh information, or whether people can override intuitive cognitive biases that can lead them astray.

The October Challenger Job-Cut Report set up expectations for a good employment report on Friday. The count fell to 55,679 vs. 66,404 in September for the lowest total since March last year.

The October ADP Jobs Report enhanced those expectations: according to ADP, October was the seventh consecutive month of declining job losses.

Graphic: US natural gas production remains high despite a big drop in drilling due to low prices. And if production hasn't begun to decline by now, it isn't likely to in the near future.

Modern Man’s Kama Sutra

Yes We Cannabis:
*Maine Voters First To License Medical Pot Shops.
*Breckenridge, Colorado Votes Overwhelmingly To Legalize Marijuana.
*Beginners Guide To Get You Started in Growing Cannabis

Graph - Non-business US bankruptcy filings (1996-Present). The trend is up and it appears to be accelerating. High unemployment and the accumulated debt from a decade of high consumer spending and low savings rates has put many families put many families between a rock and a hard place.

CrossingWallStreet.com: Something about Decades. "many cycles have begun and ended when the tens digit changes on the calendar."

Planned Parenthood director has a change of heart and resigns after watching an ultrasound of an abortion procedure.

Water rationing imposed for Caracas, Venezuela's capital city. Some blamed poor government management of resources, but President Hugo Chavez blamed capitalism. Let them drink gasoline.

Intel's next-gen memory closer to reality: Combining conventional computer memory's high speed with flash memory's low cost, low power demands, and high capacity.

Video demonstrates the bad side of socialized medicine: Canadian bureaucrat denies life-saving bladder treatment, but approves gender reassignment surgery.

'Gay Eradication Day' proclaimed by residents of the McGregor Gully community in East Kingston, Jamaica. Residents say that they will be taking action as a two-week notice given to all gays and lesbians to flee the community has now expired. "Yu nuh si seh dem waa mash up di place an gi wi bad name, me haffi protect my yute dem from dem type a influence deh," said one resident.

"I plan on being a complete asshole to approximately 52% of the people I meet from Maine for the foreseeable future." Twitter - Dan Dunn. Better make that 53%, Dan!

"It's easy to tell if you're in a church that favors gay marriage - only half of them are kneeling." - Jack M. Eoff

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Wednesday links - Falling with the leaves

Although the S&P appears to be trying to stabilize, after falling 6.5% from the October peak, the NYSE Summation Index - which called the top with a negative divergence - is still falling like a stone. This means that a few hot stocks are propping up the index, but the majority of stocks are still under selling pressure, especially small caps. In my opinion the S&P remains vulnerable to a total decline of at least 10%, which establishes a minimum target of 990.

"Buying the dips apparently has stopped working and that means the opposite -- selling rallies -- has become the proper strategy to use." Michael Kahn

"The gold/dollar conundrum is the most interesting action in the market as both rally higher. But this is a trend that cannot and will not last in the future. Unfortunately, with little to no sign of inflation on the horizon and a Fed that intends to destroy the Dollar, it’s hard to have long side conviction in either." The Pragmatic Capitalist

Forget Inflation, Deflation Is a Bigger Danger - Mortimer Zuckerman

Goldman Sachs: Very bullish on natgas, bullish on oil, corn, and platinum, bearish on gold and silver.

Dumbing down the Bill of Rights: Another reason the government should not run our schools.

Recent polls of interest:
*Only 34% of voters say the US is winning the "War on Terror", down 9 points from a month ago and 21 points from when Obama first took office.
*Half of all Americans now support the formation of a new political party. This is a great opportunity for libertarians if they can come up with some charismatic candidates.
*1 in 5 Brit girls thinks her best pal is fat - but would never say so.
*47% of black Americans say they are satisfied with the way things are going, compared to 10% in mid-2008 before Obama was elected.

"CHANGE means Come Help A Nigger Get Elected." - Jack M. Eoff

Bill to audit Fed gutted in committee, Ron Paul says.

Looks like Rep. Melvin N. Watt was responsible for gutting the Fed audit legislation. Check out his top five contributors!

Cartoon: "I'm feeling too big to fail!" Watch it - arrogant dragon will have cause to repent. The UK is going to break up some of their big banks and it could happen here, too. In the US, populist rage is always simmering on the back burner.

The more we study dolphins, the brighter they turn out to be. Anuschka de Rohan

11 Year Old Bulgarian Girl Gives Birth on Her Wedding Day. "I'm not going to play with toys any more - I have a new toy now."

Idaho police sodomize man with Taser.

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Tuesday links - Watch the cash

Jittery big companies are accumulating more cash -- and have a greater percentage of their assets in cash -- than at any time in the past 40 years. On the other hand, individual investors' cash holdings in October fell to 19%, the lowest since July 2007. This is like comparing the positions of commercials to small speculators in commodities: the big operators are usually on the right side of the market.

Roubini: The New Dollar Carry-Trade Is a Disaster in the Making. "if factors lead the dollar to reverse and suddenly appreciate – as was seen in previous reversals, such as the yen-funded carry trade – the leveraged carry trade will have to be suddenly closed as investors cover their dollar shorts. A stampede will occur as closing long leveraged risky asset positions across all asset classes funded by dollar shorts triggers a co-ordinated collapse of all those risky assets – equities, commodities, emerging market asset classes and credit instruments."

Freed British paedophile "raped boy of five after prison doctor gave him Viagra".

Graph: Hotel Occupancy Rate, 2006 - 2009 (year to date). Occupancy bobs up and down according to its own seasonality pattern, but 2009 has been consistently below par.

Graph: Commercial property loan delinquency by property type. They all look bad, but hotels are accelerating to lead the pack.

Meanwhile, demand for junk bonds hit a record high last week.

"If we gave $10,000 to certain people and said 'we'll voluntarily sterilise you' then all of society would be better off.'' - Michael Laws, New Zealand regional mayor

The biggest wheat harvests on record could lead to really low prices in the next year.

Gold Is Not in a Bull Market - interview of John Nadler. Good read if you like the fundies. Nadler says gold's price will collapse, triggered by a rising dollar and/or Fed tightening.

Stock trading by company insiders: the sellers outpace the buyers by a margin of 10:1. "Insiders continue their resounding vote of no confidence in the companies they run via the use the of their own dollars."

Kissing evolved to spread germs. 'Female inoculation with a specific male's cytomegalovirus is most efficiently achieved through mouth-to-mouth contact and saliva exchange, particularly where the flow of saliva is from the male to the typically shorter female.' Kissing the same person for about six months provides optimum protection.

Bonds Fall As ISM Rises - Arthur Hill. He is looking at support and resistance levels, but also, if TLT closes below 93.5, there will be a completed head and shoulders top with an objective of 87.5.

Canada named one of the most peaceful nations in the world. Not sure if Americans really appreciate how lucky they are to have Canada as a neighbor. What if our northern neighbor were Russia instead, or Afghanistan?

"You can't raise taxes on the rich. These people know how to get around taxes. Warren Buffett pays no taxes because all of his wealth is in unrealized capital gains. There's no tax on unrealized capital gains, so how do you get it? You have to tax poor people." Arthur Laffer

"I am not a vegetarian because I love animals; I am a vegetarian because I hate plants." - Jack M. Eoff
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Monday links - Natural gas reserves go up as oil reserves go down

Natural Gas Reserves Go Up As Oil Reserves Go Down. Get with it, Uncle Sam and US consumers - convert! Natural gas is where it's at.

World disaster alert map - hisz.rsoe.hu

New automatic toilet paper dispenser from Kimberly Clark is stingy with the sheets. KMB, the manufacturer of hundreds of great products like Kleenex and disposable swine flu masks, is certainly one of the world's great companies and a terrific long-term investment. For some reason, I was afraid to buy KMB last spring when it started rallying up from the low 40s, and I am still watching it with trepidation while it is in the 60s.

"Women should be like Kleenex, soft, strong and disposable!" Jack M. Eoff

British Columbia police seek serial groin-kicking woman.

Nanoparticle coating prevents freezing rain buildup on roads, power lines, and aircraft.

Recent polls of interest:
*Nearly 60% of professional investment managers say they are bullish or very bullish about the stock market through the middle of next year.
*Obama's monthly approval ratings dipped to a new low in October.
*51% of Republicans still believe Obama was not born in the US.
*Only 15% of voters now give Congress good or excellent ratings, while 53% rate the legislature as poor.
*65% of US consumers expect to cut back on Holiday spending.

Oh great, fake babies available at your Wal-Mart soon! Scientists are ‘five years’ from producing artificial human sperm and eggs.

Oops: airport security x-ray machines can "tear apart DNA".

Calculated Risk: More on Falling Apartment Rents. "Since OER is the largest component of CPI, this will apply downward pressure on CPI for some time."

"I'm John Dennis and I'm running against Nancy Pelosi. That is the greatest applause line of my life. Thank you all for your gracious support in our effort to unseat the most reviled politician in America."

Numerous unique and beautiful silver coins are available directly from the Royal Canadian Mint.

Minnesota Supreme Court: Seven years in prison is an OK sentence for possession of bong water.

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Sunday links - Yes We Cannabis

These women do not make a good first impression! A pair of Tennessee women left their 2-year-old and 3-year-old children home alone. The house caught on fire, killing one child and severely injuring the other. One woman's response? “I really need to get in there to see did my purse burn up, cause I had my food stamp card and everything in there.”

This woman, however, makes an excellent first impression.

Not too sure about this one: Koo Koo the Bird Girl.

WTF? Hussein N. Obama Lifts a Ban on Entry Into U.S. by HIV - Positive People. “If we want to be a global leader in combating H.I.V./AIDS, we need to act like it.”

Western Ukraine has been hit by a severe epidemic of unidentified influenza, which is not swine flu; it has been tentatively diagnosed as viral pneumonia. Hey, Hussein, we might as well be global leaders in combating viral pneumonia, as well as AIDS! Lets get those Ukrainians over here ASAP!

Push to Legalize Marijuana Gains Ground in California - NYTimes.com. “All of us in the movement have had the feeling that we’ve been running into the wind for years,” said James P. Gray, a retired judge in Orange County who has been outspoken in support of legalization. “Now we sense we are running with the wind.”

Voters in Breckenridge, Colorado, a Rocky Mountain resort town, will decide next week whether to legalize pot for all adults.

Get your free "Yes We Cannabis" bumper sticker.

"One of the greatest pleasures in life is doing what people say you can not do." Jack M. Eoff

Weed Porn: Aptly named "White Widow" ready for rollup in Amsterdam. This is about twice as much as 2 or 3 sane persons would want to smoke in one session.

Google's Eric Schmidt on What the Web Will Look Like in 5 Years: Dominated by Chinese-language and social media content, delivered over super-fast bandwidth in real time.

Old-time gag photo: "Fanny - I named it after you."

Islam4UK, a fanatical Muslim group campaigning to impose Sharia law on Britain, wants to turn Buckingham Palace into a mosque!

Raid in Michigan reveals a similar Islamic sect which seeks to establish an independent state in the US based on Sharia law.

Lakota Indians Withdraw from Treaties Signed With U.S. 150 Years Ago. "We are no longer citizens of the United States of America and all those who live in the five-state area that encompasses our country are free to join us.'' - Russell Means. Lakota country includes parts of the states of Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana and Wyoming.

Surgeons in Rotterdam were flabbergasted when X-rays showed 78 different items of cutlery in a 52-year-old woman's stomach.

Fellatio keeps male fruit bats keen.

P.S. Effective immediately, Mr. Monopoly is moving to GMT. This is a protest against the senseless, irritating, and seemingly continuous change from Eastern Standard Time to Daylight Savings Time here in the US.
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Saturday links - Thanks Be to Hussein N. Obama!

White House takes credit: Only a small portion of the economic stimulus funds have been spent, yet already 650,000 jobs have beeen created or saved! Thanks Be to Hussein N. Obama!

Cartoon: "Haven't you folks heard? The recession is officially over!"

Official version vs. reality: When the Dow falls more than 2% on a Friday, the odds favor bearish follow-through on the following Monday.

An Australian driver who killed two motorists in the same way at the same intersection seven years apart has been criticised as "incompetent" by a coroner.

Has The Euro Put In A Top?

The Dollar Could Surprise in 2010.

Halloween Safety Tips from The Onion: "Pack your child's rectum with razor blades to make him/her less desirable to would-be molesters."

The Saudis are dropping the WTIC oil contract as the benchmark for pricing their oil, in favor of the Argus Sour Crude Index, effective January.

The NYMEX immediately promised new futures contracts on the Argus Sour Crude Index by the end of the year.

Exxon’s Earnings Reflect Decline in Energy Prices. $70 is the new floor for the industry. Prices below that will definitely impede investment in new exploration and production.

Pit bulls attack car, rip off bumper with teeth.

9 more banks failed Friday, bringing the year's total to 115. All of these privately-held banks were immediately acquired by US Bancorp.

A Los Angeles couple hit by foreclosure tied up and tortured two mortgage loan officers.

3 Reasons to Buy JPMorgan Chase Today (JPM)

Butt Solicitors

"Did you hear the Energizer Bunny was arrested? Charge: Battery. Ha Ha!" - Jack M. Eoff

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Friday links - Dollar bigots may get caught in a short squeeze.

Dollar May Extend Gain After Breaking Trendline.

Fed study says the Dollar is undervalued by 11%, but it won't go up soon.

However, options premiums for protection against a rise in the dollar are now more expensive than they have been since last December.

And starting in December 2008, the dollar index rallied 15% in 3 months.

"People say I'm a bigot, but I ain't got nothing against dollars. Hell, some of my best friends are dollars! I'd even marry one if they weren't so damn funny looking." Jack M. Eoff

Rich people may evolve into a separate species in the future, thanks to enhancements in biotechnology and robotic engineering, according to futurologist Paul Saffo.

The Kirk Report: Watch S&P 1042! "holding yesterday's lows will be very important in the days to come. Many traders will be setting their stops right there and a future violation of it will be severe."

Bespoke Investment Group: Daily Earnings Trends. "as earnings season has progressed, the percentage of companies beating estimates has declined, while the percentage of companies missing estimates has increased. . . . this is probably one reason that the market has been struggling."

The history and future of the telephone business at a glance.

Michigan man stuffs 16 cockroaches in mouth to beat world record.

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report: Amazingly, 25 BCF more gas went into storage this week! Who knows where they are putting it all?

Eight reasons to hate natural gas - Vincent Fernando

Get ready to buy UNG. Although natural gas bulls have become quite scarce lately, we have finally reached the beginning of the heating season, UNG's premium to NAV has declined from close to 20% in September to less than 3% now, and the price and volume action is starting to look as if it would like to form a double bottom and then pop much higher.

Trick or treat? "Introducing Succu Dry Sex in a Can from Fleshlight, the world’s first vampire inspired sex toy for men." $44.95 from fleshlight.com

Envion Oil Generator said to turn waste plastic into crude oil at a cost of about $10/bbl.

TIPS - Treasury Inflation Protected Securities - A Smart Buy Now? Brent Arends, WSJ.com. "here's the secret of TIPS: You don't buy them because you know where inflation is headed. You buy them so you don't have to care." Well, you might begin to care if interest rates start to rise during a time of disinflation and your TIPs fall 20%.

Recent polls of interest:
*58% of those polled by WSJ say the economic slide still has a ways to go, up from 52% in September. Only 29% said the economy had "pretty much hit bottom."
*Only 28% of voters say some banks are too big to fail; 49% say let them fail.
*Only 31% of Bloomberg subscribers are bullish on stocks.

Anthropomorphic taxidermy art? A stuffed squirrel dressed as Queen Victoria, mounted in a shadow box - $495.00 from Etsy

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Thursday links - Market learns how to fly

There was a strong and surprising drop in new home sales in September.

Graph: The distressing gap between new and existing home sales - Calculated Risk. "This is obvious but worth stating: new home sales are far more important for employment and the economy than existing home sales."

Kevin's Market Blog: Home Builders Break Through Support. That's a nasty top formation with negative implications for the whole market. Sure looks like the HGX homebuilders index could fall all the way back to its previous low at 74. ITB has a high correlation and appears to be the trading vehicle of choice.

Star Trek Jew Conspiracy

VIX and More: VIX Spike of 35% in Four Days Is Short-Term Buy Signal.

Quantifiable Edges: Based On This Setup SPY Has Always Bounced In The Past. "SPY closes lower at least 3 days in a row. Close > 200ma. The rate of decline has slowed the last 2 days. Buy on close. . . . All 27 instances closed above the entry price at some point in the next 4 days."

"After a decline the last eight days, Intel (INTC) is showing signs of firmness near a support zone. First, notice that the decline retraced 62% of the prior advance. Second, notice that broken resistance turns into support. Third, notice that MACD has a bullish divergence working. A break above 20.5 would reverse the eight day downtrend." Arthur Hill

eYe2eYe wearable hummingbird feeder - $79.95 from heatstick.com

Kevin's Market Blog: Has The U.S. Dollar Bottomed?

3 stocks which love a falling dollar (and hate a rising one). The author mentions BA, CAT, and HOG, but there are lots more - for example MCD, MMM, PPG.

India Central Bank Begins Exit From Monetary Stimulus. "We will start to see G-20 economies exiting now, starting with the emerging ones and then the advanced countries."

Gay-Away anti-gay hand and body sanitizer.

Recent polls of interest:
*While voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on 10 key electoral issues for the first time in recent years, only 15% of Republicans say the party’s representatives in Congress have done a good job of representing Republican values.
*Self-described conservatives outnumber moderates and liberals in the US in 2009, marking a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives.
*Only 4% of voters trust news reporters more than themselves on what's good for America.

Tourist attraction: a waterfall of toilets and urinals.

Obama's Job Creation Miracle. "Yes we can"

"Learning how to fly is learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss." Jack M. Eoff
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Wednesday links: This market is a dog with no legs.

Political Uncertainty Puts Freeze on Small Businesses - WSJ.com. I thought that small businesses were supposed to be leading the economic recovery, but instead . . .

This chart from Kevin's Market Blog shows that small cap stocks are leading the market lower.

Deal Reached on Bank Crackdown - WSJ.com. The proposal would require financial firms with more than $10 billion of assets to pay for the unwinding of a collapsed competitor. OK, big banks, don't worry, be happy! Take all the risk you want - if you do get in trouble, your competitors will have to bail you out. If you all go under simultaneously Uncle Sam will still have to pick up the tab. I can't believe the assholes in congress are really this stupid.

Great optical illusion. Stare fixedly at the dot for a few seconds, then the black and white image appears to be in color.

Fair Value of S&P 500 (according to fundamental analysis by Boston Wealth Mgmt.): "bull case is fair value at 865 and bear case is fair value at 600."

Dow 30 on Razor's Edge - Tim Knight. "A break beneath 9825 would violate the trendline that has been in place since the Dot Gov bubble was commenced." We are almost there.

Insider selling of stocks spiked to $846M for the latest week while buying remained abnormally low at $14.7M.

Photo: Salvador Dali taking his anteater for a walk.

New York may run out of cash to pay its bills in December, Governor Paterson says - Bloomberg.com

$13 an Hour? 500 Sign Up for One Opening - NYTimes.com

Arizona education official warns of 'massive' teacher layoffs next year.

"How would you feel about your tax dollars going to pay some black fag in New York to take pictures of other black fags?" Dave Burk, teacher at Geneva, Illinois, High School, to his students.

The Real Reason That - For the First Time Ever - More Women are Working Than Men.

The American Trucking Associations’ Truck Tonnage Index Slipped 0.3% in September, after increasing 2.1% in both July and August.

Losers: Yahoo blew $3.5B to buy Geocities in 1999, but they failed to buy Google for $100K in 1998.

Irish shopkeeper, tired of drunks using his storefront as a urinal, devises a 250-volt deterrent.

New Inflation-Hedging ETF Launches: CPI. My first impression is negative. This is an ETF of ETFs; as such it will be expensive - there is the fund's 0.65% fee in addition to the fees charged by constituent funds. Component ETFs are chosen by a rules-based strategy that considers the historical performance of various asset classes during inflationary environments and switches based on prevailing conditions. Timing of the fund launch is interesting from a contrarian viewpoint, as it suggests the real problem in the future may be deflation, not inflation.

Abbott Laboratories (ABT): Dividend Stock Analysis. "The stock is trading at a 20%+ premium to its buy price of $42.18" (based on fundamental analysis techniques)

"After a decline the last eight days, Intel (INTC) is showing signs of firmness near a support zone. First, notice that the decline retraced 62% of the prior advance. Second, notice that broken resistance turns into support. Third, notice that MACD has a bullish divergence working. A break above 20.5 would reverse the eight day downtrend." Arthur Hill

"What you call dog with no legs? Ha ha! Don't matter what you call him, he ain't gonna come!" Jack M. Eoff

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Tuesday links - Bank Hell

Regional Banks Suffer Downturn. "Dick Bove has struck again." Bove's message that many of these banks will have no earnings until 2011 was not well received.

Write-offs of bad debt at US banks is exceeding levels seen at the beginning of the Great Depression, but building of reserves for loan losses has flattened out in an alarming manner as the banks attempt to prop up earnings.

"If you owe the bank $100, that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem." Jack M. Eoff

Why banks stay big - James Surowiecki, The New Yorker

Too Big to Fail: Why The Big Banks Should Be Broken Up, But Why The White House and Congress Don't Want To - Robert Reich. "The biggest difference between now and last October is these biggies didn't know then that they were too big to fail and the government would bail them out if they got into trouble. Now they do. And like a giant, gawking adolescent who's just discovered he can crash the Lexus convertible his rich dad gave him and the next morning have a new one waiting in his driveway courtesy of a dad who can't say no, the biggies will drive even faster now, taking even bigger risks."

A banker fell overboard from a friend's sailboat.The friend grabbed a life preserver, held it up, not knowing if the banker could swim, and shouted, "Can you float alone?" "Obviously," the banker replied, "but this is a heck of a time to talk business."

Detroit defines a bad real estate market: banks can't auction off foreclosed houses with a starting bid of $500.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd Pushes Bill to Freeze Credit-Card Interest Rates.

More bad news for banks: The tax credit for first-time home buyers will probably be phased out, not extended.

Two lawyers are in a bank, when armed robbers suddenly burst in. While several
of the robbers take the money from the tellers, others line the customers, including the lawyers, up against a wall, and proceed to take their wallets, watches, etc. While this is going on lawyer number one jams something in lawyer number two's hand. Without looking down, lawyer number two whispers, “What is this?” To which lawyer number one replies, “It's that $50 I owe you.”

"Hold Banks Accountable!": American Bankers Assn. convention in Chicago attracts large crowd of angry protesters.

Chicago bank protesters demand that "banks end their over-reliance on greed and profits and commit to using their taxpayer bailouts and backstops to help America's economy recover."

Bank Hell - Now serving #106!

Customers of the Dutch bank DSB have forced it into bankruptcy by withdrawing £550m of their savings in just 12 days.

"I'm not saying that the customer service in my bank is bad, but when I went in the other day and asked the clerk to check my balance, she leaned over and pushed me." Jack M. Eoff

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